by Peter Griffin
Description
Table of Contents
Excerpt
FOREWORD TO THE READER
1 INTRODUCTION
Why This Book?
Difficulty Interpreting Randomness
Blackjack's Uniqueness
Use of Computers
Cheating
Are Card Counters Cheating?
Appendix
Bibliography
2 THE BASIC STRATEGY
Definition of Basic Strategy
Hitting and Standing
Doubling Down
Pair Splitting
Summing Up
Condensed Form of Basic Strategy
House Advantage
Appendix
3 THE SPECTRUM OF OPPORTUNITY
An Example
Bet Variation
Strategy Variation
Insurance is 'Linear'
Approximating Bet Variation
How Much Can be Gained by Perfect Play?
Averaging Disadvantage for Violating Basic Strategy
Volatility
Appendix
4 EXPLOITING THE SPECTRUM—SINGLE PARAMETER CARD COUNTING SYSTEMS
The Role of the Correlation Coefficient
Efficiency
Betting Correlation
Strategic Efficiency
Proper Balance Between Betting and Playing Strength
Simplicity Versus Complexity
Appendix
5 MULTIPARAMETER CARD COUNTING SYSTEMS
Keeping Track of a Single Denomination
The Importance of the Seven When You Have Fourteen Against a Ten
Ultimate Human Capability
The Effect of Groupong Cards
John Henry vs the Steam Engine
Appendix
6 TABLES AND APPLICATIONS
Insurance and Betting Effects
Virtually Complete Strategy Tables
How to Use These Tables
Quantify the Spectrum of Opportunity at Various Points in the Deck
The Normal Distribution of Probability
Chance of Being Behind
How Often is Strategy Changed?
Gain From Bet Variation
Appendix
7 ON THE LIKELY CONSEQUENCES OF ERRORS IN CARD COUNTING SYSTEMS
Two Types of Error
An Exercise in Futility
Behavior of Strategic Expectation as the Parameter Changes
An Explanation of Errors
Appendix
8 MANY DECKS AND DIFFERENT RULES
The Effect of Rule Changes
Opportunity Arises Slowly in Multiple Decks
Betting Gain in Two and Four Decks
No Hole Card
Surrender
Bonus for Multicard Hands
Double Exposure
Atlantic City
Appendix
9 MISCELLANY
More Than One Hand?
Shuffling
Previous Result's Effect on Next Hand
Appendix
10 CURIOS AND PATHOLOGIES IN THE GAME OF TWENTY-ONE
Some Extremely Interesting Facts
The Worst Deck
Effect of Removal on Dealer's Bust Probability
The World's Worst Blackjack Player
The Unfinished Hand
Appendix
11 SOME TECHNIQUES FOR BLACKJACK COMPUTATIONS
Dealer's Probablilities
Distinguishably Different Subsets
Random Subsets Stratified According to Ten Density
Stratified Sampling Used to Analyze Expectation in a Particular Deck
Use of Infinite Deck Approximations
Cascading Process for Determination of Best Strategy
Appendix
12 UPDATE—FIFTH NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON GAMBLING
Improving Strategy Against the Dealer's Ace
A Digression on Precise Pinpointing of Strategic Indices
When Reshuffling is Necessary to Finish a Hand
Percentage Advantage from Proportional Betting Schemes
Games Which Have an Advantage for the Full Deck
Final Thoughts
Appendix
13 REGRESSION IMPLICATIONS FOR BLACKJACK AND BACCARAT
The Problem
Woolworth Blackjack
Digression: The Count of Zero
Actual Blackjack, 10, 13, and 16 Card Subsets
Linear Approximation to the Infinite Deck Blackjack Function
Can Baccarat Be Beaten?
Ultimate Point Counts
Appendix
14 POSTSCRIPT 1986
Multiple Deck Strategy Tables
Unbalanced Point Counts and the Pivot
Volatility of Advantage for Various Rules
Some Very Important Information
Kelly Driterion Insurance
The Small Player
Appendix
15 INTERACTIVE APPROXIMATIONS TO FACILITATE RAPID BLACKJACK COMPUTATIONS
Applications to Determining the Player's Expectations
The Problem of Pair Splitting
Multiple Decks
SUPPLEMENT I—RULES AND CUSTOMS OF CASINO BLACKJACK
Blackjack
Insurance
The Settlement
Hitting and Standing
Pair Splitting
Doubling Down
SUPPLEMENT II—Card Counting
A System
Betting by the Count
Varying Strategy by the Count
INDEX
INDEX OF CHARTS AND TABLES
"There are three subjects you can count upon a man to lie about: sex, gas mileage, and gambling."
—R.A. Rosenbaum
I played my first blackjack in January 1970, at a small club in Yerington, Nevada. Much to the amusement of a local Indian and an old cowboy, I doubled down on (A,9) and lost. No, it wasn't a knowledgeable card-counting play, just a beginner's mistake, for I was still struggling to learn the basic strategy as well as fathom the ambiguities of the ace in "soft" and "hard" hands. The next day, in Tonopah, I proceeded to top this gaffe by standing with (5,4) against the dealer's six showing; my train of thought here had been satisfaction when I first picked up the hand because I remembered what the basic strategy called for. I must have gotten tired of waiting for the dealer to get around to me at the crowded table since, after the dealer made 17 and turned over my cards, there, much to everyone's surprise, was my pristine total of nine!
At the time, I was preparing to give a course in The Mathematics of Gambling, which a group of upper division math majors had petitioned to have offered. It had occurred to me, after agreeing to teach it, that I had utterly no gambling experience at all; whenever traveling through Nevada with friends, I had always stayed outside in the casino parking lot to avoid the embarrassment of witnessing their foolishness.
But now I had an obligation to know first hand about the subject I was going to tech. An excellent mathematical text, R.A. Epstein's Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, had come to my attention, but to adequately lead the discussion of our supplementary reading, Dostoyevsky's The Gambler, I clearly had to share this experience.
At first I had no particular interest in card counting or blackjack, but after totaling up the losses of my brief, between-semesters novitiation, I vowed revenge on the casinos. What the text informed me was that, short of armed robbery of counterfeiting chips (and I had considered these), these was only one way to get my money back. With this in mind, I anted up $1.95 for Ed Thorp's class, Beat The Dealer, which even today at $2.45, I still consider the best buy on the subject.
Soon, indeed, I had recouped my losses and was playing with their money, but it wasn't long before the pendulum swung the other way again. Although this book should prove interesting to those who hope to profit from casino blackjack, I can offer them no encouragement, for today I find myself farther behind in the game than I was after my original odyssey in 1970. I live in dread that I may never again be able to even the score, since it may not be possible to beat the hand held game and four decks bore me to tears.
My emotions have run the gamut from the inebriated elation following a big win which induced me to pound out a chorus of celebration on the top of an occupied Reno police car to the frustrated depths of biting a hole through a card after picking up what seemed my 23rd consecutive stiff hand against the dealer's ten up card. I've stared at the ceiling in the mockingly misnamed Victory Motel, wondering how in the name of Probability I could be good enough to win $400 in six hours of steady play downtown and bad enough to then lose $100 in each of nine Las Vegas Strip casinos in only three and a half hours that evening.
My playing career has had a sort of a Faustian aspect to it, as I began to explore the mysteries of the game I began to lose, and the deeper I delved, the more I lost. There was even a time when I wondered if Messrs. Thorp, Wilson, Braun, and Epstein had, themselves, entered into a pact with the casinos to deliberately exaggerate the player's odds in the game. But after renewing my faith by confirming their figures for the basic game, I threw myself once again into the fray, alas with the same results.
Generally considered the bible for serious blackjack players, Peter Griffin's classic work provides insight into the methods and numbers behind the development of today's card-counting systems. Contains the most complete and accurate basic strategy. New edition is updated and revised.
Reviews/Media Mentions:
Blackjack Confidential, Casino Player
“The Theory of Blackjack is a fundamental contribution to our understanding of the game … unusually well written and amusing … a pleasure to read.”
—Ed Thorp, author of Beat the Dealer
“An innovative masterpiece … must reading for every serious player.”
—Allan Wilson, author of the Casino Gambler’s Guide
“Peter Griffin’s sense of humor is refreshing and pointed, even while he presents the authoritative work on 21.”
—John Luckman, Gambler’s Book Club, Las Vegas
Huntington Press
